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Prediction for CME (2023-07-04T04:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-04T04:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25808/-1
CME Note: Complex partial halo CME comprised of multiple embedded fronts seen mostly south in SOHO/STEREO A coronagraphs but brightest in STEREO A COR2. The CME appears to contain a wide bulk and a very wide faint shock present in the northeast. Likely associated with an eruption near the vicinity of AR3359 (S22E24) seen best as a spray in SDO 193/171 starting shortly before 03:00Z as well as large-scale brightening in SDO 304 seen near 04:00Z. A broad area of large-scale post-eruptive arcades are seen back towards the northeast after the eruption, particularly in SDO 193. Data gaps due to a STEREO A campaign limits analysis of this event. No clear CME arrivals on July 6-8.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-07T14:43Z (-12.61h, +17.24h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/07/04 04:50Z
Plane of Sky 1: 15:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction; Note: CH HSS/Possible Multi-CME correction
Plane of Sky 2: 20:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction
POS Difference: 5:00
POS Midpoint: 17:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 13:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.3
Travel Time: ~6.3 * 13:00 = 81:53

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-07T14:43Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 15%

Lead Time: 67.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-07-04T19:43Z

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